Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Gujarat's growth model better than other states...


Gujarat's growth model better than other states...

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Gujarat has a far better chance, according to analysis by research firm CLSA, of sustaining its high growth trajectory in the next few years as compared with competing states such as Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.

"Unlike most large economies, India's economy has evolved differently. It has transited from an agrarian economy to a services powerhouse, without going through a phase where manufacturing dominates. But Gujarat has bucked this national trend," the report said.
In Gujarat, it said, industry accounts for 40 per cent of the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), while the national average is just 27 per cent. 

This means far more sustainable growth for Gujarat. It also says the state's low reliance on central funds would help it deliver strong growth.
Other industrialising states such as Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have seen a fall in the share of industry in overall GSDP. 
"The state's industry GDP contribution to the national GDP has consistently increased from 8-8.5 in 2000-01 to 11-1.5 per cent in FY11," the report said.
On the oft-repeated criticism that despite high growth, Gujarat's Human Development Index (HDI) and Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) show little signs of improvement as compared to Maharashtra or Tamil Nadu, the report said with improved governance, Gujarat's HDI and IMR would soon converge with the other two states.

In agriculture, the report said farming contributes 13 per cent to the state's GDP, significantly higher than Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
"The state's contribution to the national production of wheat and cotton has significantly improved in the last few years and the contribution of its agri GDP to the national agri GDP has doubled in the last 10 years," the report said.
Regarding the reliance on central funds, CLSA said the ratio of the state's own tax revenue to total tax revenue is one of the highest among all states, at 84 per cent.
"Less than 30 per cent of its overall revenue receipts come from central taxes and grants from the central account," the report said.
These, experts said, make Gujarat's growth far more robust, even if there is a slowing in central allocation.
It spends a consistent 55-60 per cent of overall expenditure on development, while not compromising on spending in other sectors.
In other states, the share of total expenditure on development activities fluctuates widely.

Gujarat is India's top state in terms of economic freedom, according to 'Economic Freedom Rankings of the States of India 2012'.

The economic freedom Index is based on the three parameters - size of the government, legal structure and security of property rights, regulation of business and labour.

The report highlights the significant differences in economic governance that exist in India. 

It has focused attention on state-level reforms to improve inclusive economic growth. India ranks only 111 among 144 countries in the EFW list, having slipped from 76th position in 2005. 

Clearly, its government has attached a low priority to improving economic freedom, the report points out.

The levels of economic freedom from state to state within India varies, many states have shown significant increases and significant declines in their economic freedom rankings. Greater economic freedom is positively associated with growth at the state level, states the report.
The report states that Gujarat has left behind its sordid past of communal violence and destruction, while other states are unable to improve security of life and property in the manner required.

This puts a serious question mark on the sustainability of high economic growth in such states, says the 'Economic Freedom Rankings of the States' report.

Gujarat has shown a remarkable increase from 0.46 to 0.64, and has moved up from 5th position in 2005 to become India's top state in economic freedom today.The good news is that economic freedom in Indian states has improved even though it has slipped at the national level.

State capitals have been doing more to improve economic freedom than New Delhi. 
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Tamil Nadu has shown steady improvement in their index values and relative ranking - each has benefited from economic growth without commensurate increase in the size of their government.
Tamil Nadu has been a consistent performer – it was at the top in 2005 as well as 2009 but has declined to second 14 rank in 2011.
The report has been prepared by policy expert Bibek Debroy of the Centre for Policy Research, Laveesh Bhandari, Indicus Alaytics, Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, the Cato Institute and Ashok Gulati, Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Government of India.
Madhya Pradesh is one of the best governed states and this is reflected in its index value, ahead of all others.

Better police investigations as well as a lower share of economic offenses to the total incidences of crime resulted in significant improvement in the state. 
Haryana has been the most rapidly growing state in India. The state is attracting significant investments in the services sector and manufacturing.
Himachal Pradesh scored on better performance on a range of variables - yearly market wages to minimum notified wages for unskilled workers, strikes and lock outs, and total cases registered in the prevention of corruption act improved. 
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Andhra Pradesh ranks fifth in legal structure and security. Andhra Pradesh has slipped from 3rd to 6th position in rankings.
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ammu & Kashmir (Rank 7)
Score: 0.46

Jammu & Kashmir is now among the best performers with relatively high economic growth. The index values of 2005 and 2009 show that the state was amongst the poorest performers.
Rajasthan (Rank 8)
Score: 0.43 

Rajasthan's ratings show an improvement since 2005. The value of property recovered out of property stolen and decline in the proportion of violent crime are some of the factors leading to its improvement.
Karnataka (Rank 9)
Score: 0.42
Karnataka has seen a moderate improvement in ratings.
Kerala (Rank 10)
Score: 0.42

Kerala has seen significant decline in economic offence cases.

Chhattisgarh (Rank 11)
Score: 0.41
Chhattisgarh scores high on legal structure and security of property rights and regulation of labour and business.

Punjab (Rank 12)
Score: 0.39 

Punjab's rank has slipped badly from 6th position in 2005 to 12th position in 2011. This does not reflect a major deterioration in its freedom rating, which has dipped just marginally from 0.41 to 0.39. 

But it has failed to keep up with other states, many of whom have improved their freedom ratings dramatically, states the report. 

However, Punjab's cities have created a relatively good business climate. Ludhiana, the biggest city in the state, is ranked by IFC/World Bank study as one cities with the best business climate among major Indian cities.

Maharashtra (Rank 13)
Score: 0.39
Maharashtra is another state that is among the better performers. The size of the government has not increased as much as economic growth in recent years.
Uttaranchal (Rank 14)
Score: 0.38

Uttaranchal has seen a moderate improvement (0 to 0.08 points). But the states that have performed better have seen improvements on a whole range of indicators. 

This suggests that improvements in economic freedom can be most dramatic when they are comprehensive and not driven by excellent performance in just one or two areas.
Assam (Rank 15)
Score: 0.36
Assam's index values and rankings show that there has been significant improvement but here as well, the data shows many year-on-year variations – largely due to an economy that is highly dependent upon agriculture.

Assam (Rank 15)
Score: 0.36
Assam's index values and rankings show that there has been significant improvement but here as well, the data shows many year-on-year variations – largely due to an economy that is highly dependent upon agriculture.

Orissa (Rank 17)
Score: 0.34

Overall, Orissa has had a significant fall in their economic freedom ratings.
West Bengal (Rank 18)
Score: 0.32
As many as 8 states have seen a fall in their economic freedom rankings since 2005. West Bengal is among the worst performers in 2011. 

Jharkhand (Rank 19)
Score: 0.31

Jharkhand is among the worst performers, with its score falling from 0.40 to 0.31.
The declining index values and relative ranking of Jharkhand in this area only confirm the much stated worsening condition in recent years. 

Its human development indicators are among the poorest in the country.

Bihar (Rank 20)
Score: 0.29
Bihar have shown steady improvement in their index values and relative ranking- each has benefited from economic growth without commensurate increase in the size of their government. 

Bihar has improved significantly from 0.25 to 0.29, but remains at the last position.

How 20 Indian states fare against the world
How big is Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state?
One way of answering the question is to take its total area: 95,000 square miles (246,000 sq km).
Another way is to think of it as a country. If Uttar Pradesh were to declare independence, it would be the world's fifth most populous country.
Yet its economy would only be the size of Qatar, a tiny oil-rich state of fewer than two million people.
That makes it poor on a per person basis. Despite India's two decades of rapid growth, Uttar Pradesh's GDP per head is close to that of Kenya.
The following data, based on 2009 figures, presents country equivalents for India's states and territories in terms of GDP, GDP per person (in PPP terms) and population, according to The Economist.
Maharashtra
GDP of Maharashtra: $175.3 billion
GDP of Singapore (nearest equivalent): $183.3 billion
GDP per person in Maharashtra: $4,743
GDP per person in Sri Lanka (nearest equivalent): $4,760
Population of Maharashtra: 110.5 million
Population of Mexico (nearest equivalent): 111.2 million
Uttar Pradesh
GDP of Uttar Pradesh: $103.5 billion
GDP of Qatar (nearest equivalent): $98.3 billion
GDP per person in Uttar Pradesh: $1,586
GDP per person in Kenya (nearest equivalent): $1,620
Population of Uttar Pradesh: 195.8 million
Population of Brazil (nearest equivalent): 191.5 million
Andhra Pradesh
GDP of Andhra Pradesh: $85.7 billion
GDP of Slovakia (nearest equivalent): $87.8 billion
GDP per person in Andhra Pradesh: $3,047
GDP per person in Nicaragua (nearest equivalent): $2,950
Population of Andhra Pradesh: 83.6 million
Population of Egypt (nearest equivalent): 83 million
Gujarat
GDP of Gujarat: $80.1 billion
GDP of Angola (nearest equivalent): $80.6 billion
GDP per person in Gujarat: $4,132
GDP per person in Congo-Brazzaville (nearest equivalent): $4,150
Population of Gujarat: 57.1 million
Population of Italy (nearest equivalent): 59.6 million
Tamil Nadu
GDP of Tamil Nadu: $80.1 billion
GDP of Angola (nearest equivalent): $80.6 billion
GDP per person in Tamil Nadu: $3,549
GDP per person in Mongolia (nearest equivalent): $3,550
Population of Tamil Nadu: 66.4 million
Population of Thailand (nearest equivalent): 66.36 million
West Bengal
GDP of West Bengal: $76.9 billion
GDP of Angola (nearest equivalent): $77.6 billion
GDP per person in West Bengal: $2,429
GDP per person in Ghana (nearest equivalent): $2,400
Population of West Bengal: 87.5 million
Population of Vietnam (nearest equivalent): 86.1 million
Karnataka
GDP of Karnataka: $62.9 billion
GDP of Angola (nearest equivalent): $63.2 billion
GDP per person in Karnataka: $3,199
GDP per person in The Philippines (nearest equivalent): $3,270
Population of Karnataka: 58.6 million
Population of Italy (nearest equivalent): 59.9 million
Rajasthan
GDP of Rajasthan: $46.3 billion
GDP of Dominican Republic (nearest equivalent): $46.6 billion
GDP per person in Rajasthan: $2,093
GDP per person in Sudan (nearest equivalent): $2,190
Population of Rajasthan: 66.3 million
Population of Thailand (nearest equivalent): 67.0 million
Haryana
GDP of Haryana: $44.2 billion
GDP Serbia (nearest equivalent): $44.7 billion
GDP per person in Haryana: $5,326
GDP per person in Armenia (nearest equivalent): $5,300
Population of Haryana: 24.8 million
Population of Ghana (nearest equivalent): 23.8 million

Kerala
GDP of Kerala: $41.2 billion
GDP Tunisia (nearest equivalent): $40.9 billion
GDP per person in Kerala: $3,350
GDP per person in Papua New Guinea (nearest equivalent): $3,370
Population of Kerala: 34 million
Population of Canada (nearest equivalent): 33.4 million


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